Retirement Income Research Centre > Research Library > Forthcoming Research

Forthcoming Research

2006 Update of Current and Recent Research

This section describes retirement income research planned or underway in New Zealand, as well as recently completed projects.  It will be updated on a regular basis.  If you know of any additions to this list, please contact david.feslier@retirement.org.nz

A. Demographic and General Analysis

B. Employment

C. Incomes and Expenditure

D. Assets, Saving and Wealth

E. Living Standards and Wellbeing

F. Housing and Home Equity Release

G. Fiscal and Taxation

A. Demographic and General Analysis

Ageing of the Elderly

In this paper Susan St. John and Yung Ping Chen analyse the implications of increases in longevity at older ages and the imminent retirement of the large baby boom cohorts. On current trends, the costs of pensions and healthcare are seen as likely to outstrip the willingness and capacity of the working population to pay. Using the United States and New Zealand as examples, the paper explores how an intra-generational approach might spread the risks from those older persons who live longer to those who don't, and between the healthy and the less healthy amongst the older age group as a supplement to inter-generational transfers.

One variant of the paper was presented as 'Coping with Improved Longevity; Shifting the balance from Intergenerational to Intragenerational Financing' at the World Ageing and Generations Congress on Sept 29-Oct 1 2005 in St Gallen, Switzerland. A second version entitled 'Ageing of the Elderly; Can an intragenerational funding approach help society cope with improved longevity?' is to be presented. on May 4-5, 2006 to the Society of Actuaries in Washington D.C at the conference Re-Envisioning Work and Retirement in the 21st Century.

Contact Person: Susan St John at the University of Auckland

Phone: 09 373 7599 ext. 8734
Fax: 09 373 7427
E-mail: s.stjohn@auckland.ac.nz
Website: http://yoda.eco.auckland.ac.nz/~sstjohn/

Population Census 2006

The five yearly population Census was held in March 2006. Data will be released in stages as it becomes available.

Contact Person: Nancy McBeath at Statistics New Zealand

Phone: 04 931 4600
E-mail: nancy.mcbeath@stats.govt.nz or Info@stats.govt.nz
Website: www.stats.govt.nz

Generational Accounts for New Zealand

The project being undertaken by Jaques Poot will provide estimates of Generational Accounts for New Zealand. Results are expected to be available in late 2006.

Contact Person: Jaques Poot at the University of Waikato Population Studies Centre.

Phone: 07 838 4685
Fax: 07 838 4621
E-mail: jpoot@waikato.ac.nz
Website: www.waikato.ac.nz

Older People Within Families: Contributions and Care

The paper in course of preparation for the Families Commission deals with the role of older people within families. Topics covered include roles, care, and income transfers.

Contact Person: Judith Davey at the NZ Institute for Research on Ageing at Victoria University of Wellington

Phone: 04 463 6746
E-mail: judith.davey@vuw.ac.nz
Website: www.nzira.ac.nz

Policies for Drawing Down Retirement Savings in New Zealand; Implications for the Ageing of the Population

The paper by Susan St John analyses New Zealand's 'unique' approach to retirement income provision with a flat rate universal pension and supplementary unsubsidized private provision. As longevity increases, increased annuitisation may promote intragenerational risk sharing, but in a voluntary market requires active intervention by Government. New Zealand is seen as being in a unique position to design suitable limited value, indexed annuity products for middle income retirees that may also address other risks such as long term care.

This paper was presented to the Ageing Population Conference held on 7-9 September 2005 at St Anne's College, Oxford.

Contact Person: Susan St John at the University of Auckland

Phone: 09 373 7599 ext 8734
Fax: 09 373 7427
E-mail: s.stjohn@auckland.ac.nz

The Influence of Gendered Factors on Preparation for Retirement

This Ph.D. thesis will look at planning for retirement with a significant focus on gender factors. A sample of 4,000 persons is planned, with focus groups also being used to identify issues. Completion is expected by 2009.

Contact Person: Jack Noone at Massey University Psychology Department

Phone: 06 350 5799 ex. 2071
Fax: 06 350 5673
Website: http://psychology.massey.ac.nz/grad/

Population Ageing

The proceedings of a 2005 conference on ageing are expected to be produced in a book form by the Ministry of Social Development and the Institute of Policy Studies by August 2006. The Editors are Jonathon Boston and Judith Davey at the Institute of Policy Studies at Vitoria University, ( IPS,) while Pip Baldwin of the Ministry of Social Development is arranging publication.

The draft contents and individual authors are as follows. Some items are still to be confirmed, revised, or completed. These items are marked with as astertisk.

Introduction* Jonathan Boston and Judith Davey
Demigraphic Aspects of New Zealand's Ageing Population Kim Dunstan and Nicholas Thomson, Statistics New Zealand
Ageing in Place* NZIER
Richer, Better Educated and More Likely to be Employed Paul Callister
Population Ageing, Capital Markets and Markets for Goods and Services NZIER
Implications of Population Ageing for the Labour Market Judith Davey
Fiscal Implications of Population Ageing* Paul Rodway, Treasury
The Implications of Population Ageing for Families Murray Petrie
The Implications of Population Ageing for the Voluntary Sector and Communities Maire Dwyer
Population Ageing and the Future Challenges for the NZ System of Retirement Income* Geoff Rashbrooke and Sue Paul, Ministry of Social Development
Ageing New Zealand and Health and Disability Services* NZIER for Ministry of Health
Accommodation Options for Older People in Aotearoa/New Zealand* Davey, de Joux, Nana and Arcus for CHRANZ
Conclusions/Summary* Jonathan Boston and Judith Davey

Contact Person: Pip Baldwin at Ministry of Social Development

Phone: 04 916 3300
E-mail: pip.baldwin003@msd.govt.nz
Website: www.msd.govt.nz

The Health of Older People as they Transit from Work to Retirement

The 3 year project covering 2006-2008 will sample 13,000 people through a postal survey. While the main focus will be on Health Status, the questionnaire will include some questions on assets and liabilities.

The first wave of letters is scheduled to go out on March 20, with preliminary results gathered in by July 2000 after several follow ups in relation to initial non-responses. Final reporting is expected to be in 2008.

Contact Person: Fiona Alpass, Massey University

Phone: 04 801 5799
E-mail: f.m.alpass@massey.ac.nz
Website: http://hwr.massey.ac.nz

B. Employment

Disaggregated Labour Status Scenario Model

The original work involved the development of a model of the labour force by Infometrics Ltd for the Department of Labour as part of the Future of Work programme. The model developed allowed for cohort analysis of labour market participation by age groups. This part of the project was completed in 2005.

Ongoing work also contracted to the Department of Labour is involved in refining the model in terms of qualifications and demographic characteristics, with a cohort analysis on a perpetual inventory basis. This upgrade is expected to be completed in May 2006.

Contact Person: David Grimmond at Infometrics

Phone: 04 494 6435
E-mail: david.grimmond@infometrics.co.nz
Website: www.futureofwork.govt.nz

New Zealand Labour Force Survey

The quarterly survey of Labour Force Activity by Statistics New Zealand samples 14-15 thousand households and covers employment and unemployment. The last published data for the December quarter of 2005 was released in the February 2006. March 2006 data is expected to be available in May 2006. The current data still treats all those aged 65 plus as one age group. However, the Statistics New Zealand Data Lab can provide more detailed breakdowns of age groups aged 65 plus.

Contact Person: Helen Sears at Statistics New Zealand

Phone: 04 931 4600
E-mail: helen.sears@stats.govt.nz
Website: www.stats.govt.nz

Self Employment of the Older Worker

This 2001 Massey University report by Anne de Bruin and Patrick Firmin is part of the Labour Market Dynamics Research Programme. It looks at older people who are involved in self-employment.

Contact Person: Eva McLaren, Research Manager, Labour Market Dynamics Research Programme, Massey University, Albany

Phone: 09 414 0800
Fax: 09 441 0800
E-mail: E.G.McLaren@massey.ac.nz

The Future of Work

This project looks at future labour market prospects in New Zealand as the growth of the labour force tapers off for demographic reasons. The analysis to date is incorporated in a March 2006 Department of Labour report entitled 'Planning for New Zealand's Future Labour Market.'

Contact Person: Joselyn Stroombergen, Department of Labour

Phone: 04 915 000
E-mail: joselyn.stroombergen@dol.govt.nz

Access of Older People to ACC Services

The report aggregates together data from 2 years of quarterly surveys of Accident Compensation Corporation clients to build up a picture of the access of those aged 50 plus to ACC services. This is compared with the access for other age groups. The report has been completed and is now with ACC management.

Contact Person: Peter Larking at ACC

Phone: 04 918 7700
E-mail: Peter.Larking@acc.co.nz

C. Incomes and Expenditure

Household Economic Survey 2006-07

The Household Economic Survey (HES) for the 2006-07 year planned by Statistics New Zealand is scheduled to start in July 2006 and extend to June 2007. It should produce an overview report by October/November 2007. This will update the material last covered in the 2003/04 Household Economic Survey.

The HES is based on a survey of 3,000 private households, and shows the level and composition of household expenditure and income. Individual income data by age groups is also provided, though those aged 65 and above are treated as one age group.

Contact Person: Caroline Brooking at Statistics New Zealand

Phone: 04 931 4361
E-mail: caroline.brooking@stats.govt.nz
Website: www.stats.govt.nz

New Zealand Income Survey 2005

The survey undertaken by Statistics New Zealand takes a sample survey of the incomes of New Zealanders in the June Quarter of 2005. Data sets will allow the income of older people to be identified by Age and Sex. More detailed decomposition can be obtained by request from the Data Lab Services of Statistics New Zealand. Data on 2005 is expected to be available by late 2006. The previous survey based on the June Quarter of 2004 was released on October 6, 2005.

Contact Person: Ann Ball or Janelle Foster at Statistics New Zealand

Phone: 04 931 4660
E-mail: ann.ball@stats.govt.nz
Website: www.info@stats.govt.nz or www.stats.govt.nz

Retirement Incomes in New Zealand

In this article Susan St John of the University of Auckland examines retirement income provision in New Zealand. There is a particular focus on the universal coverage flat rate pension called New Zealand Superanuation (NZS), though the currently unsubsidised private provision and the debates surrounding workplace provision are also discussed. The NZS scheme is attributed by St John as having prevented elderly poverty to date. With some caveats, New Zealand is assessed as being well placed to weather the increased expenditures associated with the retirement of the baby boomers.

The article was published in the 2005 issue of the Australian Economic and Labor Relations Review 15(2) pages 217-239.

Contact Person: Susan St John, University of Auckland

Phone: 09 373 7599 ext 8734
Fax: 09 373 7427
E-mail: s.stjohn@auckland.ac.nz
Website: http://yoda.eco.auckland.ac.nz/~sstjohn/

Retirement Income Provision in New Zealand: A Way Forward

The book by Richard Hawke analyses retirement income options for New Zealand. It was published in 2005 by the Institute of Policy Studies at Victoria University of Wellington.

Contact Person: Richard Hawke at Ministry of Economic Development

Phone: 04 472 0030
E-mail: richard.hawke@med.govt.nz

Stability of Retirement Income Policy

This is a 1999 Institute of Policy Studies Report by Arthur Grimes and Conal Smith. The key point made is that because those retired or near retirement have little flexibility to adjust their financial circumstances, longer term retirement income policy stability is desirable. Key stability issues are transparency in any review process and the nature of constraints on changes in policy settings.

Contact Person: Arthur Grimes, Motu Research Trust
Phone: 04 939 4250
E-mail: grimes.tarrant@xtra.co.nz

Contact Person: Conal Smith, Ministry of Social Development
Phone: 04 916 3608
E-mail: conal.smith@msd.govt.nz

Survey of Family Income and Employment (SOFIE)

This is a longtitudinal study of family income and employment, with different added modules for each wave. About 11,000 households are covered, including all those aged 15 plus living in the household. Wave 2 based on 2003/04 included an assets and liabilities module as an extra. The summary tables for this Wave were published on 5 November 2005. Wave 3 data collection based on 2004/05 data has been completed, and summary results may be available by December 2006. This will include a health module, but not assets and liabilities. Wave 4 is now going into the field, and summary results may be available by December 2007. More detail on each finalised wave can be obtained from the Statistics New Zealand Data Lab.

Summary tables are available in the 'Hot off the Press' publication, and from the Statistics New Zealand Website.

Contact Person: Jenny Sanders or Roberta Loretto at Statistics New Zealand

Phone: 04 931 4600
Fax:
E-mail: sanders@stats.govt.nz or Roberta.loretto@stats.govt.nz
Website: www.stats.govt.nz

What can the New Zealand experience of universal pensions offer the United Kingdom debate?

This is a contribution to the pensions reform debate in the United Kingdom reflecting the intense interest in the New Zealand model.

The paper was presented at the Pension Policy Institute Seminar 3 'Shaping a Stable Pension Solution: Should State Pensions be Contributory or Universal?' Nuffield Foundation July 14, 2005.

Contact Person: Susan St John at the University of Auckland

Phone: 09 373 7599 ext. 8734
Fax: 09 373 7427
E-mail: s.stjohn@auckland.ac.nz
Website: http://yoda.eco.auckland.ac.nz/~sstjohn/

Equity-efficiency Tradeoffs: Options for the New Zealand Pension Scheme

The project uses a model to examine variant approaches to providing retirement incomes in New Zealand, and their efficiency/equity tradeoff. The model looks at a system of provision involving parents investing in the human capital and earning capacity of their children, and the intergenerational transfers this will involve. The model examines whether this will improve efficiency without reducing equity compared with the present system.

The study was completed as an Honours dissertation by Alice Wang at the University of Auckland in December 2004. A copy is held in the University Economics Department library. There is no electronic copy.

Contact Person: Alice Wang at the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research

Phone: 04 470 1808
Fax: 04 472 1211
E-mail: alice.wang@nzier.org.nz

D. Assets, Saving and Wealth

Analysis of Household Wealth

This Reserve Bank of New Zealand study comprises a series of linked projects looking at household wealth, consumption and savings. Age and Income slices of the Household Economic Survey are being examined to give a better understanding of income and wealth distribution and trends. Key items to be analysed include:

  • Cyclical behaviour of household consumption and saving
  • Financial stability issues relating to debt and debt servicing
  • Household equity withdrawal

Initial results are expected to be produced on some of these topics for Reserve Bank Bulletin Discussion Papers, by late 2006, and will also be posted on the Bank website. Ongoing work will continue through 2007.

Contact Person: Bernard Hodgetts at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Phone: 04 472 2029
E-mail: Bernard.Hodgetts@rbnz.govt.nz

Household Wealth Accumulation

This Treasury project is based on a detailed disaggregation of the data from SOFIE Wave 2. The study analyses the level and composition of household wealth, assets, and liabilities, and looks at the relative impact on these of Age, Ethnicity, Family Structure, Gender, Education, and Labour Force Status. Other elements analysed are the impact of student loans, and of workplace and personal pension schemes. For older New Zealanders retirement income is analysed.

Preliminary data is expected to be produced in a paper for the August 2006 ASFONZ conference. A fuller paper is expected to be produced in late 2006.

The report updates the earlier 2005 report 'Household Wealth in New Zealand' by Grant Scobie, John Gibson, and Le Trinh.

Contact Person: Grant Scobie at Treasury

Phone: 04 472 2733
E-mail: grant.scobie@treasury.govt.nz
Website: www.treasury.govt.nz

The Influence of Age Composition on Savings Rates: A Meta Analytical Approach

The study aggregates together the findings of a number of international studies which look at population age composition and dependency ratios and how these affect the savings ratios in each economy. A similar pattern seems to be found in both developed and developing countries.

The paper was produced in 2004 as a thesis.

Contact Person: Abdilahi Osman Hussain at Palmerston North City Council

Phone: 06 356 8199 ext. 7731
E-mail: osman.hussain@pncc.govt.nz

E. Living Standards and Wellbeing

Enhancing Wellbeing in an Ageing Society (EWAS)

This major research project running through to 2009 covers a number of different but linked topic areas. It is funded by FORST, and undertaken jointly by the Family Centre Social Policy Research Unit in Lower Hutt, and the Population Studies Centre at the University of Waikato. Generationally- linked Surveys will cover 2000 persons aged 65 to 84, and 2,000 aged 40 to 64 . Topic coverage will include Work, Ageing, Labour Market Participation, Intergenerational Transfers, Abuse, Participation, and Contributions from Older People.

Early stages of the project have included extensive consultation on coverage of the survey, with the draft questionnaire currently being with stakeholders for comments. A pilot is expected to be run before mid 2006, and the main survey to go into the field from mid 2006 to December 2006. Analysis and processing will take place in 2007/08.There will also be meetings with focus groups. 7 case studies are expected to be produced.

A stakeholders paper is expected to be in the mid 2006 Social Policy Journal, and a series of topic papers are expected to be issued through 2007.

Contact Person: Charles Waldegrave, Family Centre
Phone: 04 569 7112
Fax: 04 569 7323
E-mail: waldegrave.c@fc.org.nz
Website: www.familycentre.org.nz

Contact Person: Jaques Poot, Population Studies Centre
Phone: 07 838 4685
Fax: 07 838 4621
E-mail: jpoot@waikato.ac.nz
Website: www.waikato.ac.nz/wfas/populationstudiescentre

EWAS Website: www.ewas.net.nz

Living Standards of Older New Zealanders

The project incorporated in a 2001 MSD report analyses the material living standards of older New Zealanders using the Material Wellbeing Scale developed in the Ministry of Social Development. This is based on consumption of commonly desired goods and amenities. It indicated that in the period studied older New Zealanders were less likely to be poor than a range of other age and demographic groups.

Contact Person: John Jensen, Ministry of Social Development

Phone: 04 916 3300
E-mail: john.jensen001@msd.govt.nz
Website: www.msd.govt.nz/publications/social-research

New Zealand Living Standards 2004: An Overview

The Survey commissioned by the Ministry of Social Development is based on 2004 data and updates the year 2000 Survey of Living Standards. Part of the Survey will provide information on the living standards of older people.

Publication is planned for June 2006. Ongoing research is planned to examine the factors which contribute to or explain living standards.

Contact Persons: Robert Templeton or Linda Angel at the Ministry of Social Development

Phone: 04 918 9551
E-mail: Robert.Templeton002@msd.govt.nz
Website: www.msd.govt.nz

Trends in Economic Wellbeing; Changing Patterns in New Zealand 1989 to 2001

This March 2005 Ministry of Social Development report is edited by Vasantha Krishnan and John Jensen. It charts the fall in economic wellbeing during a period of recession in the several years after 1989, and the subsequent recovery and rise in average economic wellbeing up to 2001. It also identifies the different impacts on identifiable demographic groups. Superannuitants as a group maintained their relative position to employed.

Contact Person: John Jensen, Ministry of Social Development

Phone: 04 916 3300
Fax:
E-mail: john.jensen001@msd.govt.nz
Website: www.msd.govt.nz/publications/social-research

F. Housing and Home Equity Release

Financing of Long Term Residential Care in New Zealand

In this paper Susan St John and Toni Ashton discuss how long term residential care for the elderly in NZ is financed, and the mix of public and private payments involved. Subsidies available are subject to asset tests, which it is government policy to 'ultimately remove.' This approach is seen as inequitable and ultimately unlikely to be sustainable. The option of an insurance based solution appears to have been lost.

The paper was presented as 'Financing of Long Term Residential Care in New Zealand; Swimming Against the Tide' at the Fifth World Congress of the International Health Economists Association in Barcelona Spain on July 11-13 2005.

Contact Person: Susan St, John at the University of Auckland

Phone: 09 373 7599 ext 8734
Fax: 09 373 7427
E-mail: s.stjohn@auckland.ac.nz
Website: http://yoda.eco.auckland.ac.nz/~sstjohn/

Home Equity Release Survey

The project being undertaken for the Retirement Commission and the Office of Senior Citizens involves a postal survey of 2,000 people involved in or considering involvement in home equity release schemes. Also planned are 60 face to face interviews with scheme participants. Data collected is currently being analysed, and completion is planned for June 2006. The project is a follow up on the 2005 publication 'Prospects and Potential for Home Equity Release in New Zealand' The report is expected to be available in mid 2006.

Contact Person: Judith Davey at NZ Institute for Research on Ageing at Victoria University of Wellington

Phone: 04 463 6746
E-mail: judith.davey@vuw.ac.nz
Website: www.nzira.ac.nz

Housing of Older People

The project involves a series of case studies of the housing and living situation of older people undertaken by the New Zealand Council of Christian Social Services (NZCCSS). An in-depth examination of nine case studies is sampled from members who are providing innovative initiatives for housing for older people in response to the current 'ageing in place' priority. The case studies will explore the processes, key challenges, and lessons learned in developing these initiatives.

Currently the project is expected to be completed in time for a presentation at the Dunedin 20-21 April NZCCSS conference on Services for Older people. This will be followed by a report in June 2006.

Contact Person: Paul Barber, NZCCSS

Phone: 04 473 2627
E-mail: policyadviser@nzccss.org.nz
Website: www.nzccss.org.nz

Retirement Villages

This project is intended to study retirement villages in the context of the long term care sector. It is a supervised research project at the University of Auckland intended to give rise to a working paper for the Retirement Policy and Research Centre at Auckland University.

Contact Person: Susan St. John at the University of Auckland

Phone: 09 373 7599 ext 8734
Fax: 09 373 7427
E-mail: s.stjohn@auckland.ac.nz
Website: http://yoda.eco.auckland.ac.nz/~sstjohn/

G. Fiscal and Taxation

New Zealand's Long Term Fiscal Position Model

An update of the previously published Treasury Long Term Fiscal Position model is scheduled to be available by 30 June 2006. An earlier version is available on the Treasury website in the article 'Modeling New Zealand's Long Term Fiscal Position.'

Contact Person: Brian McCulloch at Treasury

Phone: 04 472 2733
E-mail: brian.mcculloch@treasury.govt.nz
Website: www.treasury.govt.nz/media

Pensions taxation and retirement incomes in New Zealand

The paper by Susan St John describes the New Zealand situation. It was presented as a seminar paper at the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin, Ireland on 28 July, 2005.

Contact Person: Susan St John, University of Auckland

Phone: 09 373 7599 ext 8734
Fax: 09 373 7427
E-mail: s.stjohn@auckland.ac.nz
Website: http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/pi/

4 December, 2008

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